According to Google Earth, my home here in Davis, California is approximately 678.43 miles from Canada. Or more specifically, a pair of small rocks sitting in the Juan de Fuca Strait just outside of Victoria, British Columbia is the closest piece of Canada (never mind consulates) that is close to me.
In other words, it's pretty damn far away.
Normally I don't read political weblogs. It's not that I don't like them, but rather that political blogs can skewer anything their authors wish to present. I can paste an article from a newspaper or other source I like, write a lot about it, argue for it, and there voila, press enter and publish it. I am sure there are many fine political blogs out there, Left and Right, Republican or Democrat, liberal or conservative, and I know I too have sometimes have done my share of politics here, but mainly I try to avoid it. Doing that kind of political discussion is simply way too easy, and just lacks the same bite or piece de resistance that other modes of media may have.
But forget all that: I'm going to talk about Canadian politics.
Now since I am an American, I cannot vote in their federal elections. Nor will I probably ever. But what's so interesting for me, as a political science major and as someone who knows the parliamentary and presidential systems, is just how interesting it is to watch from afar. Unlike the U.S., where we have two main catch-all parties and some minor ones in several state legislatures, Canada has four large parties nationally and many other ones in their provinces, each appealing for many different audiences.
On the federal level, you have the centrist Liberal Party--the governing party--who spent 75 out of the 100 years of the 20th century as governing the country. But presently they're in trouble, as allegations of financial corruption have become very public.
Then you have the Conservative Party. This party is a relative newcomer to the scene, created out of a unification of two other right-of-center parties, the old-time Progessive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance. Currently they're ahead in the polls, and seemed poised to win more seats in Parliament tonight that might give them a government (or for us Americans, an administration).
Then you have the Bloc Quebecois, a separatist party based in--yes, you guessed it, Quebec--that has been around for a little more than 15 years and wants greater sovereignty for that province. They generally are to the Left.
Then finally you have the New Democratic Party, known mostly as the NDP. A Leftist party affiliated with the Socialist International, they are as close as a mainstream North American party can get to similar parties found in Western Europe.
If the polls are correct, the Conservatives will more than likely get a very (and I mean very) slim majority to have a Prime Minister. Much of this is due to the Liberals falling popularity over their Quebec financial scandal and the poor campaign they have run. Also, after nearly 14 years of Liberal rule, people maybe simply tired of Liberal governments and will vote for others, like the NDP and the smaller Green Party.
All of this is good news to the Right. Even though their party leader (and therefore defacto prime ministerial candidate) Stephen Harper is seen as largely lackluster, dull, and to the eyes of some, too close to American Republicans and their socially conservative agenda, the Conservatives just may have their first government since 1993. Disillusion with the Liberals will mean votes being split to other parties, and in some cases, may also just switch some voters from the center to the Right.
If the Liberals never had the Quebec financial scandal and were not in power for the last 14 years, we very well would otherwise write-off Stephen Harper and the Conservatives as being serious contenders. But 2006 seems to be their year. Combined with a strong campagin, plus weak Liberal credibility and general tiredness of their long rule proves that it isn't entirely necessary to have a strong, charismatic party leader to win an election. But it always does help.
And what about the United States? Well, from here in California, Canadian politics seems more as a Trivial Pursuit question than something that could otherwise directly affect people's lives. It'll be something that some people will see on C-Span when they flip through the channels tonight. Perhaps in the northern border states, the election will have more of an impact. But 678.43 miles away? Not so much.
Or really? Canada sits on one of the largest oil reserves in the world. With the increasing crises over Iran's nuclear program and veiled threats to turn off Western oil taps if tensions increase, oiled eyes will look elsewhere. If Canada gains a Conservative Prime Minister, or more really, a closer ally to Washington than the Liberal Party has been in the last five years, those 678.43 miles will seem a lot closer.
This brings into question the other parties--the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP. If both of those parties gain more seats in Parliament tonight at the Liberals expense, and the Conservatives do in fact win, then the Conservatives will not command a majority of seats to push a conservative agenda or a far closer relationship with Washington. Instead, they will have to find legislative allies to continue a government, or else face a no confidence vote that would bring yet another election.
We'll see.
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